COVID-19 or CORONA VIRUS … STAY INDOORS … update 21th April 2020

| April 21, 2020 | 0 Comments

We are now at 124,000 cases with a death toll of 16,500 as at today. This does not include care homes and people not reporting.

Therefore your chance of dieing after being tested is 13.3% based on these numbers. The vast majority of deaths are those with underlying health conditions and the elderly. Having said that there was a lady recently of 106 who survived the virus! That should give us all hope.

There was 449 reported deaths yesterday, which is the lowest it’s been since the peak of 6th April at 439. But is this just reporting after the weekend or a sign for optimism?

There were 4,676 new cases reported yesterday (Monday), which is much lower than the 5,850 recorded on Sunday. Another cause to be optimistic?

We have 530 cases in Cambridgeshire confirmed on the BBC News website, However sensationalist journalism from the BBC then adds that there has been 1,636 deaths in the East of England. BUT … if you want to compare Cambridgeshire with the East of England you need to provide all the facts.

Cambridgeshire as a county has a population of 650,000 with 530 confirmed coronavirus cases and 135 deaths (at 17th April). The East of England population 6.24million with around 7,000 cases and 1636 deaths.

That means in Cambridgeshire your chances of death is 0.021% and the East of England as a whole would be 0.026%. There is a lot of scaremongering going on out there so be careful how you analyse statistics.

The average annual death rate from flu in the UK is around 17,000 but this varies from 28,000 one year to 2,000 another. Therefore it’s likely that this year will be 50% higher than usual potentially with Covid-19 being a form of flu.

Of course our death rate would undoubtedly be a lot higher if we did not bring in lockdown and social distancing measures.

Boris Johnson (our PM) praises the NHS after he leaves hospital on his way to full recovery.

There is a lovely story about a retired Captain in the army walking laps of his garden to raise money for the NHS and as at today he has raised £27,650,000! If you want to give through him to support the NHS visit:-

The finger pointing as to who to blame has started in earnest. Sadly we are unlikely to ever get a meaningful truthful answer as China casually increases it’s confirmed deaths in wuhan by 50%.

Donald Trump in the USA berates a reporter asking pertinent questions. Could he have done more faster? The media will tell you the USA has the highest number of cases. With an unrestricted population of 328million free to travel their deaths are at around 40,000. This would therefore equate to a death rate of 0.012% compared to our 0.25% in the UK so in reality they are doing pretty well!

Strangely more than 16% of Coronavirus deaths in the UK are within the Black and Asian community, which is only 10% of the UK population (2011 census figures). Is this because we have a higher number of black and asian people in our NHS on the frontline? We don’t know so the government is conducting an investigation.

The government has set itself the target of testing 100,000 people per day but that is currently at around 20,000 and not climbing fast.

The media is causing a storm over the NHS not getting PPE (Personal Protective Equipment) and tracking shipments that have been delayed. We want our nurses and NHS staff to be safe but let’s think sensibly. The idea of re-using PPE has been thrown out the window unless we are in extreme conditions. How long would the virus stay on PPE if it was contaminated? On the Diamond Princess cruise ship they found parts of the virus still present in rooms that had not yet been cleaned 17days after the last passenger left. However experiments show that after 72hours even on plastic the virus has deteriorated to a point that it could not contaminate, so why not use PPE after 72hours in storage?

How easy is it to pick up the virus? – Even if traces are found you would need numerous virus particles to have a chance of contaminating someone. There is the slimmest of chances that your shopping might be contaminated but if you wash your hands after handling it this would reduce the chance of infection to almost zero. Think sensibly and don’t chat to people on your door step. WASH YOUR HANDS ALL THE TIME AND DO IT PROPERLY!

Who are the winners in all this? – Pharmaceuticals industry is going to profit from this. Amazon is going to profit from this as we realise how important it is to get things delivered. Supermarkets are now looking rosy with our realisation that food is so precious. Zoom the online video conferencing company have seen a surge in use obviously but their privacy has been called into question with unwelcome visitors joining private calls.

Closer to home many people have started to realise how important their hairdresser is! Have you seen TV personalities roots growing over time? News casters hair getting a bit too long?

Has a house with a garden become more desirable? Perhaps a house in Cambridge rather than London?

Will many office workers now be asked to continue to work from home after companies realise they spend far too much on expensive office rents that are now being under utilised?

Many construction sites have worked out how to operate whilst adhering to government guidelines on working in close proximity. The government now allow a 15minute contact period for construction workers to pass materials and help each other. This makes it possible to open building sites back up again. Together with building material suppliers starting to re-mobilise expect to see building sites spring back into action.

What are the governments plan to open things back up again? Or is it 100% focused on bringing down the death rate? The new labour leader has asked the question. Are you feeling a little in the dark at the moment about the future? How will we come out of lockdown? Will people jump straight in their car for a holiday or more likely stay at home tentatively.

Travel and Tourism sector to be badly hit. Virgin Australia goes into administration after the Australian government declined a aus$710m loan request. Virgin Group in the UK are in talks with the government here for a loan.

On a lighter note amazingly a group of men with much younger ladies in tow landed in the south of France from London by private jet hoping to walk onto their helicopters to take them to Canne to enjoy their villa holiday in the sun, whilst the rest of the world (almost) sits in lockdown. The sheer arrogance is hilarious. After 4hrs of them phoning local contacts to try and continue their holiday they eventually all left back to London bar one who chartered a private jet to take them to Berlin. Amazing. Even more amazing to think that it’s raining in the south of France at the moment and 18degrees and sunny here.





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