COVID-19 or CORONA VIRUS … STAY INDOORS … update 6th April 2020

| April 6, 2020 | 0 Comments

In the UK 196,000 people have now been tested and 48,000 (or less than 25%) were positive.

Less than 5,000 have died so far from the Coronavirus in the UK. Therefore if you are tested the chance of you dieing is 2.6%.

212 people in Cambridgeshire have tested positive for the virus, which has a population of 651,482. This means if you live in this county you have a 0.03% chance you might have the virus.

You have a 9% chance of dieing from the virus if you are 80 year old or more. You have a 4% chance of dieing on average in the UK.

Therefore it is possible that 4% of the 212 people in this county being 8.5 people will die from this virus. This equates to a 0.0013% chance of death.

If you live in Westminster for example there are 363 cases (one of which being Boris Johnson the PM) with a total population of 255,324. 4% of 363 being 14.5 people dieing, which is a 0.006% chance of dieing.

Obviously it takes a month for people to contract the virus, present symptoms, get ill, get to hospital, recover or die and then have that stat reported. For this reason we will not know what effects lock-down is having but it makes sense.

1 million cornonavirus cases globally and 60,000 deaths equates to 6% mortality rate but that doesn’t include people who had the virus and didn’t even present symptoms or indeed have died but not reported.

In the UK we average around 17,000 deaths from flu (ranging from 28,000 to 2,000 depending on the year). The population of the UK is currently around 65,800,000. This means that around 0.0026% of the population dies from the flu each year well before we had even heard of the coronavirus.

It only takes one meeting with one person who has the virus to ruin things. It’s been described as a flu that we don’t have a cure for. What we don’t want is for this deadly virus to become a normal everyday virus that we need to contend with. That’s why we are locking ourselves up (or down!). So stay safe!

If you get a serious flu stay at home and when it gets really serious call 111 for the NHS. They have no cure and they might bring you to hospital to get tested and you might be lucky enough to get a ventilator if there is one spare.

Dyson the famous vacuum cleaner engineer is making 15,000 new ventilators, which they designed in 10 days. Helping those effected to breath is going to help get them through it.

China has come through this and has lifted their travel ban.

Prince Charles and Camilla having tested positive have fully recovered.

The Queen makes an announcement of solidarity on TV. “We will meet again”

 

As the pandemic becomes more under control China starts to focus on marketing and branding. Most hilariously they are claiming that during the world military games that was held in Wuhan in October the US released this virus on the local people. They have struggled to supply any evidence of this.

Counter to this is that this originates from a Chinese military laboratory and that it escaped into the local population there before spreading here. All of which the scientists are confident is nonsense and it simply came from bats and jumped to humans.

Is this history repeating itself? ‘Bird Flu’ was in 1997 just after the UK handed back Hong Kong to the Mainland and they ended up slaughtering 1.3 million chickens and other birds. 80% of poultry in Hong Kong came from Mainland China and Beijing insisted wrongly it was nothing to do with them. At the time the Guardian newspaper reported on a parliamentary committee saying there could be 50 million deaths from bird flu globally and there was going to be 75,000 Britons that would die as a result of Bird Flu but in the end it was just a few hundred.

MERS or Middle East Respiratory Syndrome came from Saudi Arabia in 2012 and this is similar but only ever killed 900 people.

Spanish Flu of 1918 killed 50million in total globally. This is the worse ever recorded pandemic.

Does anyone remember severe acute respiratory syndrome (SARS) from late 2002 into 2003. China delayed reporting figures to the world health organisation until February 2003 even as it was still spreading.

Coronavirus has a lot of similarities starting from animals in Mainland China. The source has been narrowed down to an exotic ‘wet market’ in Wuhan selling live and dead animals, fish and birds. The original host of this virus they believe was a bat, who are a host to lots of viruses like HIV, Ebola and rabies. This wet market did not sell bats but it’s likely a bat contaminated a chicken as an example and then a human ate the chicken and that’s how it transferred to humans.

Local officials downplayed the virus saying it was mild and treatable and then saying it could not be transferred between humans. Then Beijing realised that it is 2020 and you need to come clean because the internet will tell the truth. China attempted to censor the media and blocked some foreign websites but the internet has virtually broken with the amount of traffic on this subject.

The Chinese government allegedly sealed off Wuhan the day before the lunar new year travel period. This is a city of 11 million people (That’s 2 million more than in London!) where most people would have set off a day or two earlier anyway.

It’s quite likely that this coronavirus is out in the world and there is nothing we can do about it … other than try and get it later this year or next year when there are antibodies we can try and locate.

Good advice is not watch the news but to read it as it’s less sensational.

Take a good look at the statistics and make up your own mind.

As the government would like us to tell you. Stay safe, wash your hands, keep your distance, don’t go outside.

 

 

 

Photo below: Snapped last week…. two different groups of 2 men in their 20s sitting on benches on their phones when they should be at home. Shame on Cambridge.

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Source:-

https://www.theguardian.com/world/2008/jul/21/pandemic.warning

https://www.cdc.gov/coronavirus/mers/index.html

https://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/2020/04/06/start-coronavirus-who-pandemic-covid-19/

https://www.worldometers.info/world-population/uk-population/

https://www.theguardian.com/uk-news/2016/apr/07/number-deaths-england-wales-12-year-high-life-expectancy

https://www.forbes.com/sites/lisettevoytko/2020/04/05/we-will-overcome-queen-elizabeth-rallies-uk-citizens-in-rare-televised-address/

https://www.independent.co.uk/life-style/royal-family/coronavirus-camilla-duchess-of-cornwall-self-isolation-prince-charles-a9449636.html

https://edition.cnn.com/2020/03/26/tech/dyson-ventilators-coronavirus/index.html

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/health-52133054

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/health-51674743

https://www.history.com/topics/world-war-i/1918-flu-pandemic

https://assets.publishing.service.gov.uk/government/uploads/system/uploads/attachment_data/file/839350/Surveillance_of_influenza_and_other_respiratory_viruses_in_the_UK_2018_to_2019-FINAL.pdf

Bird flu. SARS. China coronavirus. Is history repeating itself?

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